[MUSIC] In the last module, we have looked at a number of innovation theories. We'll come back to those theories in this module but we will here in particular also look at the technology delta. We will look at how the technology delta relates to the potential impact and how it relates to the barriers for implementation. So what do we mean by technology Delta then? Well to put it simple we mean how much better the new technology is compared to the technology that were presently using. Even though we can't exactly know how a new technology may influence a system. We can assume that the larger the technology delta is, the larger the potential to drive change is. So if we can understand what the technology delta is, and how large it is. We can use that as a basis for our estimates on what we think may be the potential impact and the ability for the new technology to overcome barriers. Can then technology delta be estimated? Well, we have of course a number of measurable things, so that's quite easy. We can measure the performance of the new technology. But if we talk about secondary effects, it becomes more difficult and if we think about how the new technology may change something further down the line, well, that's what we're going to do later on in the course and then we talk about the scenario, the future, and the map that we are going to draw. But starting of with looking at the technology delta, starting of with what we really know and can measure is a good and rather easy starting point. But still, of course, this demands a lot of knowledge about the new technology. So we just start off with what we know about the new technology. Let's take an example. Let's look at the solid state drive versus the hard disk drive. Let me compare the two, there are a number of parameters that are quite easy to compare. We could compare the capacity, speed, fragmentation, durability, form factors, noise, energy consumption etc. And as you may know, the solid state drive is actually not better in all aspects. So even here it becomes a bit complex. But is then the technology delta large enough? Well you know that we use the solid state drive, so in some aspect, in some instances that's suddenly the case and I use one in my computer. But to be able to estimate this for a new technology we need to know how the new technology should be applied to answer that question. When we look at technologies, there are different levels of technologies, different hierarchical levels. And if we take the solid state drive as an example, that may be a component in the laptop, which then is on a higher level. But also the solid state drive is built upon a number of technologies and components, so those are then on a lower level. And when we look at different technologies, the higher up it is, the easier it usually is to estimate the impact. The impact on an industry or society. If we try to analyze lower level technologies, then we may need to narrow down the scope, the system that we look at, and then gradually move up and enlarge that system. But we need to narrow down in the beginning to see that at least it has a significant impact on that limited system, and then we can move upwards. Even with the really high potential to create value, there are still barriers to overcome. The larger the delta and value creating potential is, the more likely it is that these barriers are managed. But depending on how established the existing technology is, the need for the technology delta may vary. To move from one s curve to the other, to have a dramatic shift in the industry, we demand a really high technology delta for that to happen. Timing, to estimate timing, when a new technology will make an impact is dependent on how big the technology delta is, but also on the barriers. But when we do this, we need also to consider that everything is constantly changing. There is no such thing as a steady state here. So we need to consider the present trends in the society, the big ones, usually called the mega trends. But also we need to look at the trends regarding the specific technology that we study and the system that we analyze. In this module, we will cover the technology delta, the hype cycle, megatrends, barriers, and by the end we'll also look at how the industry is changing over time. Constantly changing over time. And when we have covered all this, together with what we did in the last module, you will be ready to start working on drawing the map.
